There are all kinds of conspiracies getting around how CoVID-19 started, who started it and how it will end. Today, someone on facebook re-posted a link from Anonymous who claimed that Bill & Melinda Gates had leaked the virus because they had developed an antidote. (That's what you get for looking so kindly and helping people.) There are many conspiracy theories about how the COVID-19 pandemic started, among them that China started it as a decoy to slow their economy; the USA started it to undermine China; and all manner of others, including that nature was levelling the playing field. Now while it's a bit far fetched to link the relatively low morbidity rate among young people from the virus, to a plan to knock off the baby boomers a bit faster, one side effect has definitely been a helping hand for the planet. As the gears of industry grind down, so do emissions. Habits are changing and people are living closer to home. And it's most likely that this is just stage one.
It's surprising that no one has yet suggested that the greenies started all this to bring down GHG emissions, but that could be the next conspiracy because Coronavirus has managed to do the impossible - cut emissions faster than countless years of climate negotiations. And the evidence is stark. Recent images from NASA and European Space Agency (ESA) pollution monitoring satellites showed significant decreases in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) over China during January - February 2020. NO2 is a noxious gas emitted by motor vehicles, power plants, and industrial facilities. The maps below show NO2 values across China from January 1-20, 2020 (before the quarantine) and February 10-25 (during the quarantine). Levels are down from 10 to 30 percent compared to previous years. China's NO2 levels of course are just one example of one gas and a slowdown in one country. And when you consider that compounded impact of cancelled travel - on the ground and in the air, manufacturing, events, conferences, entertainment and just where we work, the slowdown in emissions is enormous.
At a global level, despite the enormous personal and fiscal cost, we are actually pulling together. Apart from a few supermarket scuffles, we are all giving up what we need to in order to limit the spread of the virus and flatten the curve. We do care about our elders, our healthcare systems and the very fabric of our society. We are actually working actively together to limit the destruction of this virus and that clearly demonstrates our capacity to care and act, even if it costs.
Along with the absolute clarity that this graph gives us about what we need to do next as it travels around the globe with #FlattenTheCurve and #StopCoronavirus is the point that clear instruction, toward a shared goal outcome, even if we aren't crazy about the journey, will get community action.
In China alone the impact to date is around 200 megatonnes of CO2 according to The Guardian, and with no end in sight to the spread of the virus, hope is emerging like greenery after the fires, that we may have working evidence of how change might be affected. Certainly if the outbreak ends up being prolonged, habits will change and the longer it goes on, the more propensity there is for things to stay that way. People are flying way less, commuting less and learning how to stay productive in different ways.
With reduced offshore production and transport capacity, has come a renewed reliance on local production. And it's not just coronavirus shining a light on the volatility of supply chains. Extreme weather impacts are also impacting supply.
The evidence of the link between economic growth and climate change can be readily seen during recessions. It's the one time we see emissions significantly reduce. While recessions might be good for climate change, they aren't so good for prosperity. But of course that is where the managed contraction argument comes in. Crises are no way to manage change, but this one is providing a clear example of both global government and their citizen's ability to respond, unite and collaborate when they absolutely have to. And how they can adapt. And what happens when we don't.Now we just have to work out how we can wedge a place in actual action beyond the narrative.