While faster deployment across all key sectors is needed to reach net zero, renewable electricity growth is accelerating worldwide - set to account for almost 95 percent of the increase in global power capacity and ultimately to displace all forms of power to make up most of it by 2050. While the majority comes from solar and onshore wind, biofuels are also growing.
According to McKinsey Global Energy Perspective, power consumption is expected to triple by 2050 as electrification and living standards grow. Living standards presumably include the use of appliances to mitigate extreme weather and a heating planet. And ironically, one of the by-products of going green in areas like transport electrification is that doing so requires more electricity.
Transportation is projected to see the fastest transition to electricity due to EVs reaching cost parity with traditional cars already in the mid-2020s. In buildings, the increasing demand for appliances and space cooling, bringing the sector to approximately 60 percent electrification in 2050 from around 30 percent today.
Most of the growth in renewable energy is expected to come from solar and onshore wind. Offshore wind is projected to remain limited to less than 7% of global generation due to permitting constraints and policy hurdles, with potential to grow further if constraints on onshore wind such as land use persist.
Australia's energy transition however is not at quite the same gallop as the rest of the world. Researched and published by MIT, the MIT Technology’s Review’s Green Future Index 2022 put Australia in 60th place out of 75 for Energy transition. The second edition of the comparative ranking of 76 nations and territories tracking how economies around the world are placed in terms of investment in renewables, innovation and green policy marked Australia as 52nd – a drop from its 35th place last year. Australia is in the category of 20 countries “making slow and uneven progress or commitment toward building a green future”.
MIT's breakup of Australia's overall performance tells the energy transtion and clean innovation story, along with that famous positioning on climate.
“AUSTRALIA DID NOT SIGN THE COP26 PLEDGE TO PHASE OUT COAL BY 2030, BUT IS SPEEDING UP SOME TRANSITION TARGETS, SUCH AS CLOSING ITS BIGGEST COAL-FIRED POWER STATION BY 2025, SEVEN YEARS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.'Clean innovation was the country’s worst score covering all things from green patents to investment in cross-border clean energy initiatives and investment in food tech.
The good news is the advance of green society. Interestingly, the big 'riser' on the GFI this year was the UK, moving from 17th to 4th. With the change of the Australian government in May 2022, the first six months has seen a dramatic attitudinal shift from climate dillettante to climate action-ist. Watch this space.